Nature, 2017 г.
DISCOVERY OF A 12-DAY PERIODICITY OF TURNING-POINT DATES IN THE WORLD HISTORY
The discovery refers to the sphere of Theoretical History, the discipline claiming that historical past and historical future are subject to the same rhythmic laws based on self-organization (synergy) of society in dimension divisible by some elementary rhythm.
According to the General doctrine of Theoretical History, there are four elementary rhythms resulting from human ability to divide and multiply each of the two objective time units - year, and day and night period - by 12.
In this letter we are only going to deal with one of these four rhythms - day and night period, multiplied by 12, i.e. 12-day rhythm. Its existence is proved by the so-called rating statistics method.
Here we managed to show that the so-called turning-point dates in history, which represent the windows of time interruptions, have an obvious 12-day periodicity. The likelihood of occasional coincidence of the demonstrated intervals between significant historical dates is minimal, and accounts for part per billion per cent.
Thus the idea of searching periodicity in the world history is viable at least with one of the four assumed rhythms.
The original thesis of Theoretical History claims that self-organization of society takes place not only within the rhythms, directly dictated by astronomical units of time (24-hour period, year), but also within the rhythms multiplying and dividing these units of time by 12.
Thus, four rhythms should be researched: 12-year period, a year divided into 12 months, 12 days, and day and night period divided into 12 two-hours.
In the 12-day rhythm theory there is an assumption that one of the days of 12-day period opens the so-called Window of possibilities when historical tissue temporarily loses its durability and can be torn, dividing the time into "before" and "after". For example, this can happen during the sudden attack in case of unannounced war, as it was on June 22nd 1941. Or during the collapse of the Twin towers on September 11th 2001. On September 10th the USA were a safe and protected state, but on September 12th the country was overwhelmed by panic, paranoia and absolute disbelief in its own security.
SIGNIFICANCE OF SURVEY
Thus, it was necessary to write out a list of dates which were revolutionary or other shocking event.
Here we might fall into the trap of subjectivity, overestimating some events while underestimating the others. But we are certain that we need to talk about the society's response to the events, and not try to give our own objective evaluation. The events, evaluated by the society, can not be forgotten and thus can be found in any public calendar.
Thus, it is necessary to consider all the public holidays and anniversaries of events that were turning points in history and had an important social meaning.
CHOICE OF ORIGINAL HISTORIC EPISODE
In order not to get drowned in the sea of historic calendar dates, we will reduce our survey to turning point events of the Second World War. It is the Second World War which is full of surprise (at least for one of the sides), close-range events which literally ripped up the steady way of the confrontation.
The following dates are officially regarded as turning points:
September 1st 1939 - start of Second World War
May 10th 1940 - Hitler's turnback westward
July 9th 1940 - start of battle for England
June 22nd 1941 start of military actions in the USSR
December 7th 1941 - bombing attack of Pearl Harbour
June 6th 1944 - opening of second front line
May 8th 1945 - capitulation of Nazi Germany
Do we need to prove the significance of these dates in common perception? Some certain personalities (analysts, military and political figures) could take the events of these turning point dates for granted and might have even foreseen them. But for the people of the world these events were a shock.
We are going to say a few words concerning each date.
Before September 1st 1939 illusions of Hitler's placation were still strong. After this date the illusions died. England and France, bound by allied obligations with Poland, had to declare war to Germany, and even though they didn't start an active war, they ceased their peaceful plans.
May 10th 1940. In accordance with Churchill's prediction, the Germans moved westward. Reconcentrating 136 divisions at the Western front line, they attacked Belgium, Holland and Luxembourg and they won the Western campaign in spite of England and France joining in. It was a war at full swing. For Europe expecting a different scenario it was a shock.
July 9th 1940. For English people who were used to the idea of "unsinkable Albion" and had thought that wars were supposed to be somewhere on the continent while it was always quiet in the UK, the start of bombing attacks became ground-breaking.
June 22nd 1941 is the blackest date in the Russian history. It started a number of numerous and large-scale sufferings for Russian people.
December 7th 1941. Shock after the bombing attack at Pearl Harbour was the shock of one of the youngest nations that had to grow up immediately.
June 6th 1944. Opening of the second front line which was greatly expected and hoped for by the Russian people. It took a long time to happen, and the "D" day was a worldwide holiday, the world began to have a premonition of victory.
May 8th 1945. People were waiting for Victory and dreaming of it, they understood that it was inevitable. But still Hitler's capitulation became a shock for the humanity, only this time it was a positive shock.
We can add some significant dates to this list.
July 18th 1936. Start of fascist military takeover in Spain. A lot of people consider this date to be the start of the Second World War because the fighting allies formed during this internal war. Soviet pilots and communists from different countries wee fighting on the Republicans' side, the fascists of Germany and Italy were fighting on Franco's side. It was not a secret that it was a rehearsal of the world fight.
September 30th 1938. The Munich agreement freed Hitler's hands. The last chance of creating anti-Hitler coalition was lost.
February 13th 1945. Bombing attack of Dresden. One of the most disputable events. But the consequence of the event is still important.
There is nothing complicated here - it is so easy, we don't need to explain anything. But to make it an obvious illustration we will give the Spanish event a zero number and write out the ordinal number of the rest of the dates.
Turning point date Number of day Number of the whole 12-day period
30.09.38 804 67
01.09.39 1140 95
10.05.40 1392 116
09.07.40 1452 121
22.06.41 1800 150
07.12.41 1968 164
06.06.44 2880 240
13.02.45 3132 261
08.05.45 3216 268
It is easy to guess that all the above-mentioned days within the hypothetical 12-day rhythm have the same zero (12th) number. And all the other number (from 1 to 11) are absent. From the point of view of theory of combinations, the likelihood of occasional coincidence is equal to one twelfth to the tenth degree. It is therefore not serious to state the insignificance of such likelihood which is less than one millionth of permille.
But if we drop the idea of occasional coincidence, we will see a different situation. The Second World War can't be the only episode when the world community learned to feel the shock simultaneously. In the age of information technology shocking episodes should recur. And then we are bound to have other dates of national or worldwide shock.
For the Russian history the two revolutions in 1917 are extremely significant, because they reversed all the centuries-long history of the country.
March 12th 1917 - February revolution
November 7th 1917 - October revolution
The follwing two dates are commonly added to the above-mentioned ones:
December 30th 1916 - assassination of Rasputin
July 17th 1918 - execution of the Tsar family
Dates of almost contemporary events:
December 24th 1979 - Russian troops enter Afghanistan, the event which divided the world in two: those who condemned it and those who supported it.
May 28th 1987 - Mathias Rust flew past the Russian air defense and landed in Red Square which made the USSR look not frightening, but ridiculous. Inside the USSR this event gave start to an incredible political movement, temporary paralysis of the conservative circles and activation of the liberal wing in the Kremlin.
October 3rd 1990 - German Unity Day
June 12th 1991 - first election of Boris Yeltsin in Russia
July 3rd 1996 - second election of Boris Yeltsin in Russia
September 11th 2001 - collapse of the Twin towers in New York
March 11 2004 - bomb blasting in Spain
March 11 2011 - Fukushima nuclear disaster
DO WE NEED TO GO DEEP INTO THE PAST AGES?
Do we need to go into the past when the society was not so united as it was in the 20th century? It is a serious question.
But two random dates are very interesting:
July 4th 1776 - Declaration of Independence of the USA, the birth of the currently most powerful state
July 8th 1709 - the Battle of Poltava, which drew Europe's attention to Russia, because the leading military nation in Europe was defeated.
The evidence, proving the non-randomness of the 10 turning point dates of the Second World War seem unequivocal. The world history undoubtedly has a rhythmic structure. Creation and worldwide recognition of historical rhythmical recurrence has a tremendous significance, because it will deprive the historical science of subjectivity and national colouring. Objective historical science will make humanity united and will deprive nations of the grounds for confrontation, because the historical future (in planning scheme) will be as predictable as tide waves and solar eclipse.
1. G.S. Kvasha "Principles of History" 2001
2. G.S. Kvasha "Principles of History" 2006
3. G.S. Kvasha "Theory of wars" 2011